Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda initially cited military sources as saying Kyiv had shot down the plane because it was carrying S-300 missiles, but later corrected the story saying that information had not been confirmed by other sources.
Confirmation of a Ukrainian shootdown from Ukrainian media.
Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov told the Radio Svoboda outlet that a prisoner exchange had been planned for Wednesday, adding: “It’s not taking place at the moment.”
Confirmation of prisoner exchange.
It’s not looking good.
Looks like the military sources cited by Ukrainska Pravda was an official AFU statement from the general staff.
I think there’s no question that the plane has been downed by Ukraine. The only thing that’s not been confirmed is whether the IL-76 was carrying POWs (though, given the fact that it was flying over Belgorod, what else would it be carrying? The IL-76 has the radar cross-section of a whale), but delivery of POWs to Belgorod airport by IL-76 is standard practice according to previous prisoner exchanges.
Telegram is going to be Telegram, but there is a bit of debunking going on there. (… if you even want to call it debunking. Telegram channels are extremely biased and quickly spread rumors, true or not.)
-
A passenger manifest for the plane was released and supposedly most of the Ukrainians on that list were traded months earlier.
-
Russians have quarantined the crash site and are not providing proof that Ukrainians were on the plane.
-
Only one body is shown amid the wreckage area, which is unusual for a plane that was supposed to be filled with prisoners.
That’s the current gossip, anyway. If it’s true or not, we will not actually know for a bit.
Afaik that passenger manifest was revealed to be fake. Telegram going to Telegram, so YMMV.
Current theory is that Russians told Ukrainian general staff that there was going to be a prisoner exchange that would be delivered by IL-76, but miscommunication led to nobody on the ground getting the news. I don’t believe Ukrainian AD was acting out of malice.
We know a prisoner exchange was supposed to happen at the border near Belgorod, we know IL-76s were used to transport POWs in the past, and we also know Ukraine shot down the IL-76. We also know Russia doesn’t usually operate IL-76 so close to the Ukrainian AD umbrella, so…
-
There are some reports that the plane had arrived from Iran and was departing Belgorod in a north-easterly direction.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1750122712805319034Plenty of weaponry and drone instructors are coming from Iran…
Sushko is well-known for spreading propaganda. If you wouldn’t take news from RT, don’t take it from Sushko.
I wouldn’t call it propaganda or even news - it’s just theories at this stage.
What we can speculate about is motive to deceive. Russia has been incurring some notable losses from Ukrainian anti-air defences recently, so there would be a motive from the Russian side to portray those anti-air defences as either ineffective or untrustworthy so as to try and sway public opinion about its use.Claiming that POWs were onboard the plane aligns with that motive but it also raises questions such as:
- The plane was reportedly shot down after taking off from Belgorod, so if it was carrying POWs away from Belgorod, what was the intended destination? It doesn’t seem logical that Russia would fly from Belgorod into Ukraine (unless they were stupid or taking the risk).
- Why not transport POWs to Ukraine by road or rail, given that Kharkiv is only a 90 min drive away?
Is murdering your own hostages some kind of new military strategy?
Or is this just an MH17 type of incident again?
I think a point you aren’t emphasizing enough is that Belgorod is less than 80km from Kharkov and the PAC-2 has a range of >160km… So, Belgorod was already under Ukraine’s AD umbrella. It doesn’t help that the IL-76 isn’t stealthy, has no active defence EW capability, and is literally a giant flying boat. It also doesn’t help that Belgorod is connected along the South Eastern Railway to Voronezh, which is a major logistics hub in the region. There is no reason an IL-76 should be flying over Belgorod without clearing with Ukrainian AD. Hell, Belgorod is so close to Kharkov that you wouldn’t even need a Patriot system: even the IRIS-T system (range 40km+) would be enough given how static the frontline has been there. Belgorod sits in a cauldron.
Everyone is so convinced Russia must be lying that they’re not considering what would logically make sense.
