Yeah, definitely a “no shit?” moment – and we’ll be very lucky if we stay under 2°C, let alone 1.5°C, even if we suddenly went carbon negative right at this very second.
But we must go higher so that the profits trickle down to us. /s
Are there models for 3c or 4c? From what I see, the world ain’t gonna do shit until entire countries become tangibly inhabitable.
I doubt anything will happen even then.
Well, nothing useful at least – I’m sure that with the current meteoric rise of the extreme right many things will happen, but they’ll be more of the “death camp” variety than the “fixing the climate” variety
edit: I think high-emission models (ie models that assume we’re going to do jack fucking shit and emissions will keep rising, which frankly seems probable) have predicted average temperature rises of 4 – 5°C. I’m trying to dig up some sources, hang on
Recent research by Nasa on Pacific Islands:
NASA Analysis Shows Irreversible Sea Level Rise for Pacific Islands
In the next 30 years, Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise, according to an analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team. This amount of rise will occur regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the coming years.
“Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs ocean physics programs for NASA’s Earth Science Division."
Welp, we had a good run.
