Until recently, Nelson and other bird flu experts held out hope that, with some basic interventions, the H5N1 outbreak among cows and poultry would burn itself out and that cases among wild animals might fade away, as they did during a brief 2014-2015 outbreak. But the latest events prove that isn’t likely. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where it’s no longer a pandemic threat,” Nelson says.

“I think it’s endemic,” she says. And a December 2024 study, published in Science, concluded that just a single mutation could make the currently circulating H5N1 virus readily transmissible between humans. “What we’re allowing this virus to do is like 1,000 shots on goal,” Lakdawala says.

Feels like we are just waiting for human to human at this point.