I feel they’ve been told that 2030 is go time for a war with China (and already waay too late to be doing it but the outside year that we can do it) and we have to be ready and I think there’s clearly a group of people who think it’s okay to inflict a ton of pain now to save our economy from imploding when we do go to war. To suffer a relatively moderate blow now in order to not be decapitated by the blow that comes with war with China in 5 years. We should also not underestimate the willingness of the bourgeoisie to discipline the proles (end of cheap treats, shortages) and to marshal and discipline themselves to fight this war by taking some losses as a kind of investment in an attempt to gain the upper hand, seize as much of the world as possible for plundering and exploitation by the US bloc and they hope come up with something that will enable them to destroy China.
I feel there may have been planners in the US who wanted to not only field test new technology but create a quagmire in Ukraine specifically to keep Russia occupied through the coming US war with China so it wouldn’t want to render or wouldn’t be able to render full military aid because of its own distractions. That could yet be the case, they could set off something else in Georgia or one of the 'stan countries and distract Russia again with problems and there is a chance they intend to throw Europe at Russia by that point, to get them to build up so by 2030 they can throw themselves against Russia as a distraction and drain.
Trump’s golden shield program for example which is just more Star Wars/SDI has I think real backing. The US is not confident enough in being able to defeat the PLA in conventional combat BUT (and here comes the magical thinking much in the same vein of capitalist magical thinking on climate change that some revolutionary technology will come along to solve it) if they can actually build a missile defense system capable of reliably intercepting 95% of incoming ICBMs for example then they can solve their problems, they turn the shield on, nuke China, deflect the incoming blows and invade it and cut what remains of her people and resources up into pieces to be plundered. What stops me from dismissing this as just raving fantasy is technology has progressed significantly (we’re in the hypersonic age and from Russia’s systems to some US tests there has been some success and evidence that kinetic interception and kill is possible if expensive) and the level of desperation the US feels could compel them to stumble into some sort of technological advance that they think will enable this. Because we must recall work or fail we’re fucked if they BELIEVE they have such a system and launch on China, if the Chinese counter-attack gets through that’s good but the Chinese are still dead and it’s just the US that joins them in the grave of their own digging.
Of course it could also be Trump’s golden shield is merely a give-away to the war industry or it could be part of that whole small yard high fence defensive posture the US wants to adopt for a multi-polar world. So many ways the wind could blow.
I do think it’s very plausible that the tariffs are a trial balloon to see what would happen in the event of a war with China. The US is going to assess their actual level of dependence, and public resilience in face of shortages.
I’d argue the Ukraine accomplished the opposite of creating a quagmire for Russia. It absorbed a huge amount of western resources, and split unity of the west. The US is in a far weaker position as a result, both materially and economically. The main support Russia would provide for China wouldn’t be military support. China doesn’t need manpower for war, nor do they need industrial support. What they need is resources, food, and energy. Isolating Russia from the west ensured that Russia would divert these resources towards China now. Not only that, but there’s a revival of DPRK happening as well because of Ukraine. Russia has now fully resumed trade with Korea, and with that western blockade is effectively dead. DPRK now also has real experience fighting a NATO army making it one of the strongest and combat ready armies in Asia.
While there is likely some magical thinking in the US regarding technology such as missile shields, the reality is that balance has swung firmly in favor of the attacker. Both Russia and China have working hypersonic weapons, and currently there is no defense against them. The US, on the other hand, is still incapable of producing these types of weapons itself.
The whole golden shield thing is just an embezzlement vehicle. On top of all that, China just cut US off from the supply of critical rare earths which would be necessary on a massive scale to develop this program. These are essential inputs for any sort of advanced tech nowadays. China has an effective monopoly on refining many of these minerals, and there are no alternatives. Building out an industry to do it domestically would literally take decades. This is an eye opening read on the subject https://www.niocorp.com/china-launches-new-precision-strike-against-pentagon-rare-earth-supply-chains/
I feel they’ve been told that 2030 is go time for a war with China (and already waay too late to be doing it but the outside year that we can do it) and we have to be ready and I think there’s clearly a group of people who think it’s okay to inflict a ton of pain now to save our economy from imploding when we do go to war. To suffer a relatively moderate blow now in order to not be decapitated by the blow that comes with war with China in 5 years. We should also not underestimate the willingness of the bourgeoisie to discipline the proles (end of cheap treats, shortages) and to marshal and discipline themselves to fight this war by taking some losses as a kind of investment in an attempt to gain the upper hand, seize as much of the world as possible for plundering and exploitation by the US bloc and they hope come up with something that will enable them to destroy China.
I feel there may have been planners in the US who wanted to not only field test new technology but create a quagmire in Ukraine specifically to keep Russia occupied through the coming US war with China so it wouldn’t want to render or wouldn’t be able to render full military aid because of its own distractions. That could yet be the case, they could set off something else in Georgia or one of the 'stan countries and distract Russia again with problems and there is a chance they intend to throw Europe at Russia by that point, to get them to build up so by 2030 they can throw themselves against Russia as a distraction and drain.
Trump’s golden shield program for example which is just more Star Wars/SDI has I think real backing. The US is not confident enough in being able to defeat the PLA in conventional combat BUT (and here comes the magical thinking much in the same vein of capitalist magical thinking on climate change that some revolutionary technology will come along to solve it) if they can actually build a missile defense system capable of reliably intercepting 95% of incoming ICBMs for example then they can solve their problems, they turn the shield on, nuke China, deflect the incoming blows and invade it and cut what remains of her people and resources up into pieces to be plundered. What stops me from dismissing this as just raving fantasy is technology has progressed significantly (we’re in the hypersonic age and from Russia’s systems to some US tests there has been some success and evidence that kinetic interception and kill is possible if expensive) and the level of desperation the US feels could compel them to stumble into some sort of technological advance that they think will enable this. Because we must recall work or fail we’re fucked if they BELIEVE they have such a system and launch on China, if the Chinese counter-attack gets through that’s good but the Chinese are still dead and it’s just the US that joins them in the grave of their own digging.
Of course it could also be Trump’s golden shield is merely a give-away to the war industry or it could be part of that whole small yard high fence defensive posture the US wants to adopt for a multi-polar world. So many ways the wind could blow.
I do think it’s very plausible that the tariffs are a trial balloon to see what would happen in the event of a war with China. The US is going to assess their actual level of dependence, and public resilience in face of shortages.
I’d argue the Ukraine accomplished the opposite of creating a quagmire for Russia. It absorbed a huge amount of western resources, and split unity of the west. The US is in a far weaker position as a result, both materially and economically. The main support Russia would provide for China wouldn’t be military support. China doesn’t need manpower for war, nor do they need industrial support. What they need is resources, food, and energy. Isolating Russia from the west ensured that Russia would divert these resources towards China now. Not only that, but there’s a revival of DPRK happening as well because of Ukraine. Russia has now fully resumed trade with Korea, and with that western blockade is effectively dead. DPRK now also has real experience fighting a NATO army making it one of the strongest and combat ready armies in Asia.
While there is likely some magical thinking in the US regarding technology such as missile shields, the reality is that balance has swung firmly in favor of the attacker. Both Russia and China have working hypersonic weapons, and currently there is no defense against them. The US, on the other hand, is still incapable of producing these types of weapons itself.
The whole golden shield thing is just an embezzlement vehicle. On top of all that, China just cut US off from the supply of critical rare earths which would be necessary on a massive scale to develop this program. These are essential inputs for any sort of advanced tech nowadays. China has an effective monopoly on refining many of these minerals, and there are no alternatives. Building out an industry to do it domestically would literally take decades. This is an eye opening read on the subject https://www.niocorp.com/china-launches-new-precision-strike-against-pentagon-rare-earth-supply-chains/