• Fizz@lemmy.nz
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    16 days ago

    Do people actually think the middle east conflict will start ww3?

    • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de
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      15 days ago

      there’s a low likelyhood.

      The key question is what will happen to Israel in the future?

      In my opinion, Israel cannot stay in the middle east for much longer. They have to move out.

      Israel is so universally hated in the middle east, it’s difficult to put into words. (at least that’s what i got from other people’s messages). it’s difficult/impossible to conceive a long-term stability in the region with Israel in it. and israel knows this, of course.

      The question is: what will israel do? Will it escalate the conflict to try to grasp to power through military dominance in the area? Or will it soften its grip and let go of control in the middle east?

      • Fizz@lemmy.nz
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        15 days ago

        I think your souces for whats actually happening is clouding your judgement. There is no world where isreal is forced out of the middle east. They’ve made the strategic moves to take those options off the table.

        Isreal is more than capable of defending themselves with us support. They have destroyed almost all major threats in rhe region with Iran being the last one.

        Arabs in the region will never forget this war. But Arabs also hated isreal before so I doubt much has changed on the perception front.

        Most likely isreal will go back to normalisation with governments in the region since all major terrorist factions are virtually eliminated. If they can get regime change in Iran there is a good chance things will stabilise. Maybe they will need to destroy the houthis as well.

    • MotoAsh@lemmy.world
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      15 days ago

      Could easily be the start of it. If the US civil wars with the orangutan and his ilk, and China starts to fuck with Russia because Xi recognises Putin as a paper tiger dumbass (though China’s army is also paper tigery, so…) or just escalates their fighting with India…

      Then… That’d be most of the world involved in war.

      • Corn@lemmy.ml
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        15 days ago

        China has absolutely no reason to invade the pile of self-extracting resources that currently can only sell to them.

        • MotoAsh@lemmy.world
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          15 days ago

          I imagine Xi would if he thought he could take over Russia. It should be obvious China does not respect other nations’ boundaries or sovreignty. If Russia shows it’s that much weaker than China after the Ukraine BS, I would not put it past Xi.

          • Corn@lemmy.ml
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            14 days ago

            Even if they could, they wouldn’t get the resources as cheaply as theyre getting them now. Also China has recall elections, if Xi went mad and unilaterally decided to go to war with a country so important to Chinas economy, he’d be booted so fast.

            • MotoAsh@lemmy.world
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              13 days ago

              Ehhhh, you’re only describing the other side of the calculation that we both know Xi is making. The moment that calculation shows invading Russia/India would maybe work, he’d probably go for it.

              If the US removed itself from the global stage, I’d suspect Xi would focus more on the Pacific and Thaiwan, but if the calculations show he could own Russia/India too? Yeeaaaaa he’s not passing that up.

              Also, we all should know how China’s votes go after Hong Kong… China is a dictatorship that calls itself communist. Nothing more.