this time in open letter format! that’ll sure do it!
there are “risks”, which they are definite about - the risks are not hypothetical, the risks are real! it’s totes even had some acknowledgement in other places! totes real defs for sure this time guize
No, they never address this. And as someone who personally works on large scale optimization problems for a living, I do think it’s difficult for the public to understand, that no, a 10000 IQ super machine will not be able to just “solve these problems” in a nano second like Yud thinks. And it’s not like well, the super machine will just avoid having to solve them. No. NP hard problems are fucking everywhere. (Fun fact, for many problems of interest, even approximating the solution to a given accuracy is NP-hard, so heuristics don’t even help.)
I’ve often found myself frustrated that more computer scientist who should know better simply do not address this point. If verifying solutions is exponentially easier than coming up with them for many difficult problems (all signs point to yes), and if a super intelligent entity actually did exist (I mean does a SAT solver count as a super intelligent entity?), it would probably be EASY to control, since it would have to spend eons and massive amounts of energy coming up with its WORLD_DOMINATION_PLAN.exe, but you wouldn’t be able to hide a super computer doing this massive calculation, and someone running the machine seeing it output TURN ALL HUMANS INTO PAPER CLIPS, would say, ‘ah, we are missing a constraint here, it thinks that this optimization problem is unbounded’ <- this happens literally all the time in practice. Not the world domination part, but a poorly defined optimization problem that is unbounded. But again, it’s easy to check that the solution is nonsense.
I know Francois Chollet (THE GOAT) has talked about how there are no unending exponentials and the faster growth the faster you hit constraints IRL (running out of data, running out of chips, running out of energy, etc… ) and I’ve definitely heard professional shit poster Pedro Domingos explicitly discuss how NP-hardness strongly implies EA/LW type thinking is straight up fantasy, but it’s a short list of people who I can think of off the top of my head who have discussed this.
Ow god im not alone in thinking this, thank you! I’m not going totally crazy!
I got you homie
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Bah Gawd! That man has a family!
“Computational complexity does not work that way!” is one of those TESCREAL-zone topics that I wish I had better reading recommendations for.