The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59±17%.
(…) the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2100 is very likely to be underestimated in the IPCC-AR6 and needs to be reconsidered in the IPCC-AR7.
It was very interesting listening to this article, cause it was like a story built around scientists who study the AMOC.
Just to note that there is a new study from June 2024 that mentions the following: