You need to only look at the modern crossbench, and the teals in particular, to see the prospect of a 2010 repeat is unlikely.
These modern independents aren’t former Nationals blokes who have turned their back on their party.
They’re modern women who couldn’t see themselves in the party that once took their seats for granted.
“While the 2022 election might be heralded as a ‘breakthrough’ for the independents, the conditions for their election have been building over several decade,” the Australian Election Study noted in 2022.
“Many of these changes are associated with voters being ‘less rusted on’ to the major political parties and becoming more independently minded in their political choices.”
That’s the problem with scare campaigns like the Coalition’s. When you threaten voters with a minority government, that would require crossbench negotiations, some in the seats you’re trying to win might be left thinking: “Oh, that sounds more preferable than you.”
Only 18 per cent were Coalition voters at the 2019 election. Again, you would think from some of the commentary and media coverage that the Teals got in off the back of massive amounts of disappointed Coalition voters but that’s not actually what happened. The Greens lost more voters (24 per cent) to the Teals than the Coalition, according to the study.
As a Geeen voter, I can’t even think of what sort of Green voter would Vote Teal instead, they’re night and day apart?
This doesn’t pass the sniff test, you don’t need to vote “tactically” in Australia, we have preferential voting, so a Green Vote might preference a Teal and see their vote flow that way of the green candidate doesn’t hwt wnogh if the primary vote but thats a a different thing then Voting 1 Teal.
I always preference any Independent over the toxic shit stain that is the ALP and LNP.