An embargo would certainly not be crippling but effectively losing 2.8% of ur gpd would be a pretty big deal. So i doubt they have “no” leverage just much much less than they seem to think.
The important question is that of relative damage to each side. The US could perhaps cause China’s economy to drop by 3% until China is able to redirect its trade. However, what would be the cost for US to accomplish that. Once the dust settles, will it be in better or worse relative position.
I would expect if the usa did that there would no longer be a usa, i geniounly think people would revolt if they didnt have cheap goods to consume, but amerikkkan leaders seem kinda shit at considering consequences, and just because u come out on top doesnt mean its an acceptable thing to happen i think China would not want an embargo or something similar to happen even if they would be relatively better off because they would still be worse off in absolute terms. And in reality Chinese leaders have said repeatedly that they dont like the current trade war even tho they are clearly winning it. Clearly there is ‘some’ leverage there.
Indeed, I can’t really see a path for the US to decouple its economy from China without creating a domestic economic disaster. The question is whether the US leadership understands the repercussions or not. As we saw in Ukraine, rational analysis is largely absent from their behavior.
Except that it would be way way more crippling to the USA. Cutting trade with China weakens the USA in relation to China. However, the Great Satan continues to call for war so it would seem they’ve already decided to go through with it anyway. And of course, it will be the american working class, especially the poor, who are harmed most by it*.
Edit: *it, as in the economic challenges that arise
I think the idea is to continuously hurt their own economy while staring accusingly at China.
Helps with manufacturing consent for escalation with China
that’s how I expect things will develop for the foreseeable future
Should probably add US vassals to the US tally but it probably won’t change the overall picture.
I’m expecting it’s going to be hard to enforce bloc discipline with western economies going into a tailspin now.
German government coalition collapsed (because a third of the coalition wanted more austerity) and Scholz immediately went to call Putin, if you want more evidence of low discipline.
lol yeah these people are clowns
I wonder what the opposite chart looks like … :P
Unrelated, but the y-axis label should probably read USD millions.
