Ben Matthews

  • New here on lemmy, will add more info later …
  • Also on mdon: @[email protected]
  • Try my interactive climate / futures model: SWIM
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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: September 15th, 2023

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  • Sure, she’s right, more people in Belarus voted for her than Lukas* and his pals, they shouldn’t suffer for p’s tricks, although it seems to me the majority are rather too passive (with some great exceptions, of course).
    Anyway isn’t there another factor here - are there still long freight trains with chinese containers frequently arriving in Brest? If not, how else are they getting to europe? If so, I’d guess both belarus railways and polish lorry drivers get a lot of money out of that trade, isn’t that a factor of leverage ?
    Belarus is good at trains, I hope not so far in the future we’ll see them run again from Odesa to Riga via Minsk, and with people free to move.




  • Well such timescale would in any case depend on EU, not on convenience for any british parliament. There are now N. Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, [ Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo ?], Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, [Turkey ?] all in the queue to join EU. On the other hand, it might help from point of view of geographic and economic balance, otherwise the centre of ‘gravity’ will shift even further SE away from Brussels. I think to expand EU has to reform processes, to end all vetos and generalise multi-speed / opt-outs.
    Meanwhile a new british government could implement obviously convenient win-win cooperation step by step, until there isn’t so much left to change. And I’d be happy to see Scotland and Northern Ireland take a lead.



  • Indeed I see too much fatalistic doomerism here on Lemmy and it’s boring - waste of potential energy. We can try to explain better - if people want to understand - that climate system is complex, actions don’t give immediately tangible results, there are many sub-systems with inertia, and indeed various types of waves too, but most of this is predictable and the pathways we have to follow are well known.
    By the way about the jet-stream waves mentioned in the article, they have two sides - where I am it’s been cool recently.
    More importantly, seems likely that Chinese emissions are peaking, not because they are so virtuous but because their enormous over-construction bubble involving so much steel and concrete, which was driving global emissions growth, has burst. When I was in climate negotiations years ago, we could never get the chinese to agree to talk about peaking before 2025, yet it happened. Meanwhile renewable energy expands fast around the world.
    However we also reduced a lot of sulphate aerosols (both on land and from ships at sea), so we removed that temporary cooling, then on top of that we had El Niño, and have a peak in the solar cycle. The temperature spike then pushes more CO2 into the atmosphere from forests, soils and ocean, so we get bad news about atmospheric CO2, but such feedbacks happened before and are in the models, it’s not unexpected or out of control yet.





  • Ben Matthews@sopuli.xyztoEurope@feddit.deParty summaries
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    23 days ago

    I’d like to be able to vote for pan-european parties, but voting for Volt only works in very large constituencies (such as Germany). In most other places it likely reduces the chance of getting pro-european MEPs who might consider implementing such an option. What other strategies can help ?




  • Moi je ne suis pas français mais habitant d’un pays voisin, et pendant multiples années je n’avais pas voyagé loin en France en train avec ma famille, pour exactement ce raison, bien que nous voyageons souvent en train vers la reste de l’europe.
    Néanmoins ce mai nous avons trouvé des billets de la frontière Belge jusqu’à la frontière Espagnol pour 29€ par personne !
    J’était aussi surpris par les offres des trains régionales d’Occitanie.
    Donc, c’est possible hors des périodes fort occupés (dans ce cas grace au déplacement des congés scolaires belges). J’ai l’impression que c’est la capacité du stock roulant qui manque. Aussi la centralisation du réseau tgv le fait pratique (et parfois bon marché) pour les Parisiens, mais pas pour tous les autres (nous n’avons pas pris tgv…).



  • Nice graphic. Although probably you’d see more info with just a lineplot, separating north / south + land /ocean. What strikes me is how regular the gap is over the last year, and how it bulges most in July-December, which suggests the ocean (larger and less variable) dominates the numbers, with El Niño overlaid on steady warming trend. To get it back down quickly, we need more effort on short lived gases - mainly methane (tackling aviation-indeed cirrus might also help compensate for reduced ship-sulphate cooling ) .