This is another big win, but Illinois was always unlikely to go Trump thanks to Chicago being hella blue and 90% of the state’s population. The interesting moment is going to be when a key battleground state bars him.
Most importantly this contributes to established case law to make it easier to keep insurrectionists off the ballot
This will inevitably be challenged, probably along due process lines. And they’ll have a point: Who determines if a candidate is disqualified under the 14th Amendment, what process of law makes that determination and who is involved? 14A is unfortunately vague on that front.
To date, everyone excluded under 14A Section 3 other than Trump has fallen under one of two groups: They’ve either been a public official of the Confederacy or they’ve been convicted in criminal court of doing something that definitely falls afoul of 14A Section 3 (including one Jan 6 participant, with the last person before that being charged under the Espionage Act about a hundred years ago). Being found guilty beyond a reasonable doubt unanimously by a jury after being given an opportunity to defend himself as well as possible is a much higher bar than has been applied to Trump.
And remember, this isn’t about Trump, specifically - whatever is decided will apply going forward, and the GOP will try to wield it against any Democrat they can make a plausible case for. If the opinion of a judge that a candidate should be disqualified is all it requires, well there are plenty of right wing judges out there.
This is another big win, but Illinois was always unlikely to go Trump thanks to Chicago being hella blue and 90% of the state’s population. The interesting moment is going to be when a key battleground state bars him.
Most importantly this contributes to established case law to make it easier to keep insurrectionists off the ballot
This will inevitably be challenged, probably along due process lines. And they’ll have a point: Who determines if a candidate is disqualified under the 14th Amendment, what process of law makes that determination and who is involved? 14A is unfortunately vague on that front.
To date, everyone excluded under 14A Section 3 other than Trump has fallen under one of two groups: They’ve either been a public official of the Confederacy or they’ve been convicted in criminal court of doing something that definitely falls afoul of 14A Section 3 (including one Jan 6 participant, with the last person before that being charged under the Espionage Act about a hundred years ago). Being found guilty beyond a reasonable doubt unanimously by a jury after being given an opportunity to defend himself as well as possible is a much higher bar than has been applied to Trump.
And remember, this isn’t about Trump, specifically - whatever is decided will apply going forward, and the GOP will try to wield it against any Democrat they can make a plausible case for. If the opinion of a judge that a candidate should be disqualified is all it requires, well there are plenty of right wing judges out there.
If it holds up, and it’s a longshot, it probably changes down-ticket races if people can’t turn out for Trump.
If it were only Illinois, they’d come out to write in Trump’s name.
However, I don’t see any way Illinois will fare differently than Colorado.
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