And the model represented over 65% of their sales.
Until that’s properly ramped its impossible to see the real impact. There is an impact, just measuring it like this today doesn’t tell the whole story.
edit below
Just to give some further context on why we might see the Model 3 sales dropping as well. The pre refresh Model 3 and the Model Y both had the same problems. The big 3 being harsher suspension/ride than some people wanted, cabin noise, and mileage dropping off faster than other EVs at 70mph.
The Model 3 refresh fixed those problems (and more). So you end up getting people buying a Model 3 refresh instead of the Y as it was the superior choice assuming you weren’t dead set on a Y.
A year later the Model Y refresh comes out with all the same fixes (well I’m assuming the mileage one is fixed as well as they said they improved its aerodynamics, but we’ll need to see independent testing). So now you also have some percentage of the people who were buying a Model 3 because of those fixes, now waiting for the Model Y which would have been their preferred vehicle and they might want the extra features it has like the front bumper camera or return of the turning stalk.
I think people vastly overestimate how much consumers know about the car they buy and how much time they need to wait before the next one comes and also the previous model years on the lot usually go into steep discounts to counter this FOMO effect
I agree, I think it’s more than most people would expect, but it might also be lower than I might expect as someone who is like that. Realistically, it’s probably somewhere in the middle. It’s an expensive purchase, in a quickly changing market, so I’d hope people are making informed decisions that consider the future.
Edit: I agree’d before your edit to say overestimate instead of underestimate as per below.
Well, I just realized I wrote underestimate, when I meant overestimate, I don’t think the new model coming out accounts for even half of that 65% drop,but I could be wrong and maybe people who buy EVs make more informed choices
Ah, well that really changes things haha. I sometimes find I do that as well when I’m writing things down. Think one thing, somehow write the opposite.
On the note of FOMO with discounts then, in Tesla’s case, they have industry low days of inventory. At the end of Q4 it was 13 days, and that includes sold vehicles in transit.
So while there are some cars to buy and they will have steep discounts, it’s not like Ford or GM that have well over a month of inventory, there’s only so many of them available and they’d need to match what people want.
And the model represented over 65% of their sales.
Until that’s properly ramped its impossible to see the real impact. There is an impact, just measuring it like this today doesn’t tell the whole story.
edit below
Just to give some further context on why we might see the Model 3 sales dropping as well. The pre refresh Model 3 and the Model Y both had the same problems. The big 3 being harsher suspension/ride than some people wanted, cabin noise, and mileage dropping off faster than other EVs at 70mph.
The Model 3 refresh fixed those problems (and more). So you end up getting people buying a Model 3 refresh instead of the Y as it was the superior choice assuming you weren’t dead set on a Y.
A year later the Model Y refresh comes out with all the same fixes (well I’m assuming the mileage one is fixed as well as they said they improved its aerodynamics, but we’ll need to see independent testing). So now you also have some percentage of the people who were buying a Model 3 because of those fixes, now waiting for the Model Y which would have been their preferred vehicle and they might want the extra features it has like the front bumper camera or return of the turning stalk.
I think people vastly overestimate how much consumers know about the car they buy and how much time they need to wait before the next one comes and also the previous model years on the lot usually go into steep discounts to counter this FOMO effect
I agree, I think it’s more than most people would expect, but it might also be lower than I might expect as someone who is like that. Realistically, it’s probably somewhere in the middle. It’s an expensive purchase, in a quickly changing market, so I’d hope people are making informed decisions that consider the future.
Edit: I agree’d before your edit to say overestimate instead of underestimate as per below.
Well, I just realized I wrote underestimate, when I meant overestimate, I don’t think the new model coming out accounts for even half of that 65% drop,but I could be wrong and maybe people who buy EVs make more informed choices
Ah, well that really changes things haha. I sometimes find I do that as well when I’m writing things down. Think one thing, somehow write the opposite.
On the note of FOMO with discounts then, in Tesla’s case, they have industry low days of inventory. At the end of Q4 it was 13 days, and that includes sold vehicles in transit.
So while there are some cars to buy and they will have steep discounts, it’s not like Ford or GM that have well over a month of inventory, there’s only so many of them available and they’d need to match what people want.