• rational_lib@lemmy.world
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    3 days ago

    If he actually orders an invasion of Greenland I’d put the odds at around 12%. My guess is around 60% the military will refuse to carry out the order (it would be after all in violation of the War Powers Resolution unless congress approves), then 80% chance Trump will back down. Of course that’s if he gives the order, my guess of that is around 30%, reducing the odds of a greenland-related coup to around 4%. In reality the most likely path is that once the military explains to Trump that they want congressional approval, he’ll lose interest and go on to scaring us some other way.