It’s hard to say if the president truly knows what he’s doing. But there is a precedent for the US causing short-term chaos and reaping long-term gain, says economist James Meadway
Your explanation of why the plan won’t work is Orange Man Bad. You wasted time with the naked emperor act, but it’s still naked.
The tariff plan won’t work if:
The Americans lack the political trust and international goodwill to make a ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord’ and the international community makes an exclusionary deal. I think this isn’t very likely because of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets
The Americans don’t execute the plan in 3¾yr and the new government backs down from the plan.
The USA lacks can’t build/import industrial capacity before the political support for the plan runs out. China built a manufacturing industry in 20-25yr, but they build faster.
Your explanation of why the plan won’t work is Orange Man Bad. You wasted time with the naked emperor act, but it’s still naked.
The tariff plan won’t work if:
The Americans lack the political trust and international goodwill to make a ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord’ and the international community makes an exclusionary deal. I think this isn’t very likely because of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets
The Americans don’t execute the plan in 3¾yr and the new government backs down from the plan.
The USA lacks can’t build/import industrial capacity before the political support for the plan runs out. China built a manufacturing industry in 20-25yr, but they build faster.
The world responds with accelerated de-dollarisation. Then perhaps a trade deal/tariff deal would happen but they’d lose the exorbitant privilege they’ve had for 81 years.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedollarisation / https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege
If the oligarchs force a climbdown because of the asset crash
If the common people force a climbdown because of the cost-of-living hike (least likely)