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It has been nearly a month since the Trump administration announced the imposition of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” on its trading partners, provoking a global trade war. The development of the situation has far exceeded the expectations of the US. Not only has the Chinese government taken the lead in showing its clear attitude of “fighting to the end”, but the international community’s anti-bullying voices have also been growing louder.

With the US throwing out all kinds of punches and China responding to them, the direction of public opinion in China is also changing. The once popular “China is doomed to fail” and “light-speed surrender” theories have died down, and more and more people have come to realize that we “know what’s going on and have the cards in hand.”

At this time, new erroneous views also emerged.

One is to “quit while the going is good” , believing that China’s “hard fight” will not last long. Now that the Trump administration seems to be loosening up, we should stop at the right time, consider the win as less as possible, make concessions and compromises as soon as possible to reach an agreement, and avoid entering a difficult strategic stalemate.

The other is that “victory is in sight” . Seeing that the United States has made chaotic moves and softened its tone, people think that “the United States is afraid” and optimistically predict that the outcome of the trade war has been decided and China will soon achieve a complete victory.

So, where are these arguments wrong, and how should we view this round of struggle between China and the United States rationally?

(one)

The Biography of Mao Zedong compiled by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s Literature Research Office wrote: " On Protracted War is full of dialectics and materialism, and has universal value in terms of the methodology of observing things. "

In May 1938, with the failure of the Battle of Songhu, the fall of Xuzhou, and the crisis in Wuhan, Chinese society was in chaos and clamor. At this critical moment, Comrade Mao Zedong calmly analyzed the domestic and international situation and spent seven days and seven nights writing the speech “On Protracted War”. In this article, Comrade Mao Zedong did not cite many obscure concepts for reasoning. The whole article used dialectical materialism and historical materialism to analyze the War of Resistance Against Japan, effectively refuted various erroneous arguments, and cleared the cognitive fog for the Chinese people to win the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japan.

“If you want to know the great way, you must first study history.” Although the nature of today’s Sino-US struggle cannot be equated with the War of Resistance, the results of both are related to the direction of the country and the dignity of the nation. In the midst of chaos, it is a good idea to reread On Protracted War to appreciate the dialectical thinking of “danger and opportunity coexist” and China’s strategic vision of “why there will be final victory.”

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(two)

The Trump administration, which was established less than 100 days ago, has launched a combination of tariffs like a storm, with the intention of achieving a quick victory, using enormous pressure to force opponents to surrender, reaching an unequal deal in the short term, and maximizing benefits.

Faced with the knife and chopping board, many countries have fantasized about “feeding the wolf with their own bodies” to seek a moment of peace. But for China, expecting unilateral compromise to “beg for mercy” is simply not feasible.

As the world’s second largest economy, China’s size is there. If it keeps on being small, the iron-headed people with Cold War mentality will think that it must be eliminated as soon as possible. The Trump administration is wielding the tariff stick and trying to blackmail and kill China. The means are unprecedentedly overbearing and fierce. This is an extreme provocation to China’s national sovereignty and dignity. We have no room for concessions, let alone reasons to succumb.

This round of tariff increases by the United States covers more than 180 countries and regions around the world, which is a serious damage to the world trade system. As a responsible major country, China resolutely counters the US tariff bullying, which is not only to defend its own sovereignty, security and development interests, but also to defend multilateralism and maintain the world trade system.

What’s more, the Trump administration today changes its mind as fast as turning over a book, and treats the country’s credibility as nothing. It denies itself every day, and even releases fake news such as “China has come to negotiate” to confuse the public. Faced with the hegemonic “art of deal”, China will not be able to calm down if it endures for a while, and will not get a broad horizon if it takes a step back. The other side will only make further demands and take whatever it wants. At present, when the US side is clearly still playing tricks, how can we expect that verbal statements or promises on paper have a shelf life?

“Struggle is a means to unity, and unity is the goal of struggle.” No matter from which angle the analysis is made, China has to fight back and fight a desperate battle. It must not commit the “rickets” of avoiding struggle when encountering problems and contradictions, the “phobia” of being timid and afraid to fight, or the “delusion” of hoping for peace in the world and avoiding struggle.

(three)

Faced with opposition from all over the world, turbulence in the US capital market, and rising prices, the Trump administration has indeed softened its stance in recent days. Policies such as targeted “tariff exemptions” are in stark contrast to its initial arrogant stance. Does this mean that China will win soon? The answer is obviously no.

The first round of the US offensive undoubtedly hit a wall, but we must see clearly the long-term and cruel nature of the Sino-US game. First, although the United States is irreversibly declining, it still has advantages in terms of economic volume, technological level, corporate innovation, and number of talents. At a stage when the balance of power has not yet undergone a fundamental reversal, the United States’ “ruthless action” will inevitably have a certain impact on China.

Second, in general, containing China’s development is a long-term strategy of the United States. Since the end of World War II, the United States has always used all means to suppress the world’s second largest country. Therefore, even if the two parties take turns to be the boss and sing their own tune, the United States’ blockade and containment of China will not really turn over.

Third, China has a strong momentum of development, with a complete industrial system, a huge market capacity, sufficient high-quality human resources, and the institutional advantage of concentrating resources on major tasks. This gives China resilience and room for maneuver in development, but objectively speaking, we still have shortcomings in expanding domestic demand, industrial structure, scientific and technological innovation, and many problems need to be seriously addressed.

In view of the above, the most likely scenario for China and the United States is that they will be in a state of long-term repeated game. As stated in On Protracted War, “Without certain conditions, quick victory only exists in the mind, objectively does not exist, it is just a fantasy and false truth.” Only by adhering to seeking truth from facts and analyzing specific issues in specific ways can we ensure the final victory.

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(Four)

Nobel Prize winner in economics and famous American economist Stiglitz once sarcastically said: “American congressmen rely on 1% of the money to get re-elected, serve 1% of the people, and even rely on 1% of the people for rewards when they leave office.”

The various contradictions accumulated within American society today are ultimately caused by the deterioration of the capitalist system. As the spokesperson for the interests of capital, the US government has no chance of “self-revolution”. To truly solve the root causes of the contradictions, it must transfer the contradictions outward through suppression, blackmail, exploitation and other means. This determines that whether it is a trade war, a tariff war, or any other war, the actions of the United States are all risky behaviors with a struggling nature, a gambler mentality and a goal of shirking responsibility after its own contradictions are irreconcilable, and are destined to go against the trend of human history. In contrast, today’s China, as an “empowering power”, has always adhered to the development concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, firmly stood on the side of maintaining globalization and normal trade order, advocated mutual benefit and win-win results, and opposed unilateralism.

At the same time, China’s development has never been the result of others’ grace, but the result of the self-reliance and hard work of hundreds of millions of people. Over the past 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, China has always broken through blockades and surpassed itself in suppression, accumulating rich experience in struggle. This determines that China’s “fighting to the end” is not just lip service, but is in line with the laws of history, just, progressive, and has many supporters. “Time and momentum are on our side, and victory will eventually belong to China.”

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(Five)

The masses are the real creators of history. In On Protracted War, Comrade Mao Zedong summarized it as “the soldiers and the people are the foundation of victory.” In the contemporary context, this idea can be extended to “the whole nation is of one mind, concentrating on doing its own thing well”, that is, in the protracted war between China and the United States, the key is to achieve China’s own development, improvement, progress and growth.

From a national strategic perspective, from proposing a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international circulations mutually promoting each other; to proposing the development of new quality productivity and shaping new momentum and new advantages for development; to deepening the construction of a unified national market… The Party Central Committee has predicted the long-term nature of the Sino-US game and has made proactive arrangements for future competition among major powers. This is the basis for us to deal with containment and suppression.

From the perspective of industrial development, both the Trump and Biden administrations are obsessed with technology positioning, which not only confines them to their own territory, but also gives rise to China’s “crisis dividend” law. In recent years, China has concentrated its superior resources to break through “stuck neck” technologies and accelerate the localization process of key links. Industries such as artificial intelligence, big data, integrated circuits, and new energy have grown rapidly, demonstrating a strong strategic mobilization and concentrated attack capabilities.

From a social perspective, the Chinese people have gone through many ups and downs and are increasingly aware that “imperialism is determined to destroy us” is not an empty statement. Only by daring to fight and being good at fighting can we turn danger into opportunity and turn danger into safety. After the Trump administration launched this round of trade war, a large number of patriotic stories emerged, such as e-commerce platforms helping foreign trade companies to switch to domestic sales, consumers strongly supporting domestic products, stockholders following the “national team” to protect the country, and students shouting “scientific research to serve the country”. The mainstream public opinion is highly united and presents a strong historical initiative. This kind of national ability of self-awakening, self-regulation, self-pressure, and self-optimization is the core support for the final victory of the protracted war.

Comrade Mao Zedong once emphasized: “The Chinese people have the ambition and ability to catch up with and surpass the advanced level of the world in the near future.” Today’s China is making it a reality step by step.

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(six)

“Every generation has its own war of resistance” and “Every generation has its own battle of Shangganling” are the hot comments on the Chinese Internet after the United States provoked a new round of trade war. History never repeats itself, but it always has the same rhyme. Today, we revisit “On Protracted War” not only because it provides us with a clear framework for strategic cognition, but also because the methodological wisdom, dialectical materialism, and mass line thought it contains are still of great inspiration for international games in the new era.

As long as we always adhere to clear strategic judgment, scientific thinking methods and firm will to act, we will surely be able to successfully embark on this “Long March of the New Era”.

Written by: Bao Nan