• cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml
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    8 months ago

    I really hope you are wrong and/or just being facetious, and I hope my copy paste will help at least somewhat:

    I’m highly skeptical that this conflict would go nuclear. It’s unfortunately always a possibility, and people, especially Amerikkkan imperialists nutjobs, can and will do stupid things without thinking about the actions of their consequences, but my two-fold thinking is that not only is nuclear-war really unlikely to happen (or way less than most people think) I think it would very likely also be less destructive, depending on how things go.

    People always imagine that in a nuclear war scenario, all bets are off, but I don’t think so. There is usually some sense, even in chaos.

    Most or all of the most devastating nuclear weapons were disarmed several decades ago, and the most powerful nuclear weapons today would be able to destroy or damage large cities, even at the most. And yes, there are thousands of nuclear weapons.

    But due to the decreased potency of even the strongest nuclear weapons, and there still being a very finite number, even the capitalists probably understand that an irradiated world would be a terrible place to lord over, even if you survive.

    Nuclear weapons would most likely and would best be used to damage, delay and destroy military and industrial centers, and with how interconnected the world is now because of the internet, gps, cell phones, and supply chains, a country would be way less likely to get involved in combat when it’s industrial bases, bourgeois palaces and military-intelligence strongholds are utterly demolished, out of basic resources and power and labor, things would resolve relatively quickly, pacifying countries out of a fight with relatively few deaths, since there is no point in launching weapons at massive populations centers if it can be helped, since it would just invite more war, death, destruction, disease, sadness, vengeance, danger.

    I can’t speak for the Global North, but I find it hard to believe that those launching nuclear weapons would just shoot them everywhere all over the place at civilians, that would be ridiculously stupid, even in an extreme scenario, all but signing the death warrant of the human species, and targeting civilian and food storehouses and infrastructure would be worse than pointless, it would be stupid.

    I think/hope/imagine that if or when NATO is stupid enough to use nuclear weapons, that China, Russia, Iran, Palestine and the DPRK would already be 20 steps ahead, they have been planning for this for decades.

    China and Russia’s advanced and partially automated and augmented defense systems would scramble, hack into, shut down, disable, redirect, or outright destroy or prevent nuclear missile launches. Drones would hack into and shut down facilities or weapons themselves. Infrastructure could be shielded and damage minimized in various ways, and supply chains are something that Global South understands intuitively more than the Global North.

    I hope it never comes to it, but I think a potential World War 3 would be mostly conventional warfare, and even if it isn’t, a nuclear war wouldn’t mean the death of all or even most of humanity (hopefully) and things would resolve in the Global South’s and socialism’s favor no matter what.

    • Ocommie63 [she/her]@lemmygrad.ml
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      8 months ago

      I hope its mostly conventional warfare too, but WW3 at least in my mind has started or will start soon, I dont see any way NATO would be willing to de-escalate, this situation or any other situation. I do hope I am wrong but I fear that I am not

      • cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml
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        8 months ago

        I think people slightly overestimate NATO, but it makes sense why people do. All Russia and China have to do is call their bluffs, aim at London, D.C., Brussels, encircle their proxy armies, disable missiles, stop launches, and things will start descending. Not saying it will be easy or fast or peaceful, but I think the situation calls for more hopeful optimism.

        • Ocommie63 [she/her]@lemmygrad.ml
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          8 months ago

          I agree that NATO’s power is overstated and I do believe that in another world war they would lose. However, I am also confident that there will be a war, perhaps not officially declared, between NATO and basically the rest of the world. There is no world where the West will go down without at least trying to maintain their hegemony. They killed to rule planet and they will kill to try and maintain their rule. They will kill but they will not succeed in maintaining their hegemony over the world.