Israel, Iran, China, and Taiwan are all outside the scope of NATO.
Canada, Greenland, and most of the EU do fall under NATO protection though. It’s a defensive alliance with well defined boundaries, member countries may have interests in other parts of the world, but since none of Israel, Iran, China, or Taiwan are NATO members it’s not something NATO deals with. Unless one of those countries were to attack NATO of course.
Russia is in no shape to make war on Europe right now, they have their hands full with just Ukraine, and face economic collapse. Iran is in a similar situation. Trump has stopped his 51st state talk, but he’s insane so you never know. China invading Taiwan? Trump is weak (he only talks tough) so you never know. But China is authoritarian and as we’ve seen of late authoritarian regimes don’t seem to be doing well running military campaigns so it’s possible they don’t even have the capability of invading Taiwan.
China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Yeah with how effective drones have been in Ukraine (especially in hitting the Russian Navy) I kinda doubt they’ll have the capability. I feel like Taiwan is probably developing the capability to mass produce drones right now. They most definitely have the technology. Amphibious invasions are really hard to pull off, and China doesn’t have a lot of naval experience. And nobody has ever done it with a thousand drone boats in the water.
And yup, authoritarians do stupid things with their military, we saw that already with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. So the question is, how stupid is Xi Jinping? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Israel, Iran, China, and Taiwan are all outside the scope of NATO.
Canada, Greenland, and most of the EU do fall under NATO protection though. It’s a defensive alliance with well defined boundaries, member countries may have interests in other parts of the world, but since none of Israel, Iran, China, or Taiwan are NATO members it’s not something NATO deals with. Unless one of those countries were to attack NATO of course.
Russia is in no shape to make war on Europe right now, they have their hands full with just Ukraine, and face economic collapse. Iran is in a similar situation. Trump has stopped his 51st state talk, but he’s insane so you never know. China invading Taiwan? Trump is weak (he only talks tough) so you never know. But China is authoritarian and as we’ve seen of late authoritarian regimes don’t seem to be doing well running military campaigns so it’s possible they don’t even have the capability of invading Taiwan.
China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Yeah with how effective drones have been in Ukraine (especially in hitting the Russian Navy) I kinda doubt they’ll have the capability. I feel like Taiwan is probably developing the capability to mass produce drones right now. They most definitely have the technology. Amphibious invasions are really hard to pull off, and China doesn’t have a lot of naval experience. And nobody has ever done it with a thousand drone boats in the water.
And yup, authoritarians do stupid things with their military, we saw that already with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. So the question is, how stupid is Xi Jinping? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.