Lmao, Avdeevka was a full on route, soldiers were abandonig their positions contrary to their orders. This could end in a few months, and at this rate could even be a few weeks (tho I doubt so but you never know)
War for territory is the western idea of the war in Ukraine, but it is clearly and explicitly contradictory to what the russian government has stated as official goals and strategy. Small territorial gains? Yes, but the russian objective is “demilitarization” and the only way to demilitarize a state that is unwilling to do it is to destroy their army and their ability to fight. Even the 3rd assault brigade, what’s left of the infamous Azov Battalion, refused their orders to counter attack on the flanks of Avdeevka and there are reports and rumors that Zelensky might move /legally/politically against them. If even the most fanatical of their forces refuse to fight, then the rest of the army might stop following orders soon enough. That is a recipe for disaster in Ukraine, and at the least expected moment it all can get out of control for the government in Kiev. Not to mention that Zelensky’s term is about to end, and who knows what will happen after that, since the country is really in no position to hold elections.
I understand that they aren’t there to eat Ukraine, I’m more pointing out that this still seems to be a stalemate. I feel like if they take kharkiv or something that would be a more obvious sign of the war coming close to an end
I think the real indicator of the war to me has always been the casualty rate and the resources spent. It went from 5 dead UKR to 1 dead RUS right from the start, now we’re at 10:1 ratios–atrociously bad. The billions in Western weapons, tanks, and cold hard cash have all evaporated; their economies are in shambles while Russia’s “fortress economy” lives up to its name.
It only looks like a stalemate if we look at it from the lens of territory. If Russia defined its own victory conditions as capturing all of Ukraine territorially in the shortest amount of time, they could have swept the entire country in a month or two. However, Russia defines victory by minimizing its own losses while bleeding Ukraine, minimizing civilian losses and destruction of civilian infrastructure, beating the West in the economic arm wrestle, and ensuring that liberated Ukranian territory is not a frothing hotbed of Neo Nazi paramilitary terrorist activity. By all of these self-defined victory metrics, they have consistently been performing exemplarily with only minor hiccups.
Even when some form of peace declaration is signed, the war won’t be over. Banderites and their NATO masters will be waging war with Russia until the West as we know it has completely collapsed and been reinvented.
the only way to demilitarize a state that is unwilling to do it is to destroy their army and their ability to fight
all the more reason for Russia to move aggressively to envelop and destroy elements of the UAF like those ‘routing’ from these front line positions—if this is still too dangerous for Russia, the UAF must not be in that bad of a spot
sticking to slow and steady when the enemy is running away is prolonging a conflict by giving them an opportunity to regroup later. now it’s possible the UAF really are in crisis, but if Russia doesn’t exploit that with big moves that’s as good as the Ukainians not collapsing in terms of how long it will take for the war to end
I have said it before: this conflict ends with the demilitarization and denazification of NATO. Ukraine is irrelevant at this point. It has’t been for a while.
This is a fair point. Hm. Maybe they’re genuinely concerned about escalation, nuclear proliferation? They only want to deal with one Nazi regime at a time and maybe mowing down the routing Nazis all at once will make Poland or the Baltics all slide into conflict at once? Like, control the flow, leak the dam don’t burst it. Speculation.
Russia has no interest in destroying the Ukrainian forces, because the latter is already a spent force.
For them, the only means of destroying NATO is when Europe increases their defense budget spending and leading to the crumbling of their own economy. This is already happening, and ending the war now gives room for Europe to breathe and rebuild their economy.
As you might have noticed, the militarization of European NATO states will paradoxically lead to the demilitarization of NATO instead.
Wouldn’t such operations depend on Russia wanting to conduct a military occupation of all/most of Ukraine? There’s this big assumption in western media that Russia wants nothing short of complete territorial conquest of Ukraine, but that’s never been one of their stated goals.
Of course there’s going to continue to be Nazi terrorism there for decades to come, but history seems to suggest that a military occupation is a lot messier than border disputes and such.
Lmao, Avdeevka was a full on route, soldiers were abandonig their positions contrary to their orders. This could end in a few months, and at this rate could even be a few weeks (tho I doubt so but you never know)
really doubt it, i mean look at the map, its still just small gains
War for territory is the western idea of the war in Ukraine, but it is clearly and explicitly contradictory to what the russian government has stated as official goals and strategy. Small territorial gains? Yes, but the russian objective is “demilitarization” and the only way to demilitarize a state that is unwilling to do it is to destroy their army and their ability to fight. Even the 3rd assault brigade, what’s left of the infamous Azov Battalion, refused their orders to counter attack on the flanks of Avdeevka and there are reports and rumors that Zelensky might move /legally/politically against them. If even the most fanatical of their forces refuse to fight, then the rest of the army might stop following orders soon enough. That is a recipe for disaster in Ukraine, and at the least expected moment it all can get out of control for the government in Kiev. Not to mention that Zelensky’s term is about to end, and who knows what will happen after that, since the country is really in no position to hold elections.
I understand that they aren’t there to eat Ukraine, I’m more pointing out that this still seems to be a stalemate. I feel like if they take kharkiv or something that would be a more obvious sign of the war coming close to an end
I think the real indicator of the war to me has always been the casualty rate and the resources spent. It went from 5 dead UKR to 1 dead RUS right from the start, now we’re at 10:1 ratios–atrociously bad. The billions in Western weapons, tanks, and cold hard cash have all evaporated; their economies are in shambles while Russia’s “fortress economy” lives up to its name.
It only looks like a stalemate if we look at it from the lens of territory. If Russia defined its own victory conditions as capturing all of Ukraine territorially in the shortest amount of time, they could have swept the entire country in a month or two. However, Russia defines victory by minimizing its own losses while bleeding Ukraine, minimizing civilian losses and destruction of civilian infrastructure, beating the West in the economic arm wrestle, and ensuring that liberated Ukranian territory is not a frothing hotbed of Neo Nazi paramilitary terrorist activity. By all of these self-defined victory metrics, they have consistently been performing exemplarily with only minor hiccups.
Even when some form of peace declaration is signed, the war won’t be over. Banderites and their NATO masters will be waging war with Russia until the West as we know it has completely collapsed and been reinvented.
all the more reason for Russia to move aggressively to envelop and destroy elements of the UAF like those ‘routing’ from these front line positions—if this is still too dangerous for Russia, the UAF must not be in that bad of a spot
I think slow and steady has done them nothing but good, they are in no rush, why start now?
sticking to slow and steady when the enemy is running away is prolonging a conflict by giving them an opportunity to regroup later. now it’s possible the UAF really are in crisis, but if Russia doesn’t exploit that with big moves that’s as good as the Ukainians not collapsing in terms of how long it will take for the war to end
I have said it before: this conflict ends with the demilitarization and denazification of NATO. Ukraine is irrelevant at this point. It has’t been for a while.
why would not pressing an advantage against a NATO proxy in any way be conducive to that
This is a fair point. Hm. Maybe they’re genuinely concerned about escalation, nuclear proliferation? They only want to deal with one Nazi regime at a time and maybe mowing down the routing Nazis all at once will make Poland or the Baltics all slide into conflict at once? Like, control the flow, leak the dam don’t burst it. Speculation.
Russia has no interest in destroying the Ukrainian forces, because the latter is already a spent force.
For them, the only means of destroying NATO is when Europe increases their defense budget spending and leading to the crumbling of their own economy. This is already happening, and ending the war now gives room for Europe to breathe and rebuild their economy.
As you might have noticed, the militarization of European NATO states will paradoxically lead to the demilitarization of NATO instead.
I hope for a end to this war every single day, lets hope its weeks and not months.
And then begins the slow and tedious counter-terrorist phase. Look at the second Chechnya war and the subsequent events
I also guarantee NATO is preparing “stay-behind” operations GLADIO style right now. gotta fight to the last Ukrainian after all.
Wouldn’t such operations depend on Russia wanting to conduct a military occupation of all/most of Ukraine? There’s this big assumption in western media that Russia wants nothing short of complete territorial conquest of Ukraine, but that’s never been one of their stated goals.
Of course there’s going to continue to be Nazi terrorism there for decades to come, but history seems to suggest that a military occupation is a lot messier than border disputes and such.
It still sucks but it would be a huge improvement over the current “grind thousands upon thousands of barely trained conscripts into red paste” phase